A Jimmy riddle
Well, cynical me was wrong about the winner of the Oscar for best picture, as Everything Everywhere All at Once not only took that title, but almost swept the board in everything it was nominated for. And, as I'd hoped, Brendan Fraser won the lead actor award. All good stuff. (thumbup)
But, to be completely honest, I'd forgotten that the awards were even happening. Not that I'd have tuned in, even if I could. As much as anything, I cannot abide that smug git, Jimmy Kimmel. There's something about him that just makes me want to punch his face.
The final viewing figures are in, and 18.8M people don't share my overwhelming desire to sock Kimmel in the kisser. Or there was greater interest in the runners 'n' riders, compared to the dearth over the last couple of years. Or perhaps they were just curious to see what the Academy would lay on as a Round 2, after last year's bitch-slap heard around the world. Whatever the reason, and contrary to my prediction, this year's viewership was up 13% from last year's!
The more excitable elements in the entertainment industry will laud this second straight-year increase as a sign of the show's renaissance. The rise of the phoenix from the ashes. We shall see.
| Year | r | p | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -0.9507 | 0.0010 | 17.6 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | -0.9723 | 0.0001 | 14.0 | 18.8 |
| 2024 | -0.9670 | 0.0000 | 13.2 | – |
I developed a model for the downward trend in viewership over the last few years. Actually, calling it a model
is overselling it. It's simply a regression of viewership against year, starting from 2014 and excluding 2021. I believe the pandemic artificially lowered the figure for that year, which is why the number of viewers rebounded
so dramatically last year.
I'd previously speculated that the decline in viewership over the last almost decade was related to Hollyweird elites' grandstanding, and the awokening in particular. From what I've understood, the pontificating was absent this year; but that's with the benefit of hindsight. The expectation may still have had some effect in turning off potential viewers. Nevertheless, congratulations go to whoever managed this feat!
Personally, I think that a major factor in the decline is the predominance of nonlinear media consumption, particularly among the young; and a dwindling linear media audience, as the elderly, who are the largest consumers, turn up their toes. As they shuffle off this mortal coil, no one's replacing them at the other end of the age spectrum.
Several factors may influence audience engagement with the Academy Awards: pontification (negative); nominees (positive/negative); controversy (positive); and alternative media (negative). In the absence of anything spicy during this year's ceremony, how much of the audience will return for the next? Perhaps Oscars 2024 should be streamed on YouTube. Or, better yet, edited down to a sixty-second TikTok.